Price Breaks Free From a Four-Week Range
Ethereum continued its upward momentum on Saturday, pushing Ether to its highest trading level since late January. On Bitstamp, ETH was quoted at $2,646 as of 17:56 UTC, representing a 1.3 percent gain on the day and roughly an 8 percent jump from Thursday's settlement. The coin briefly tagged $2,668 earlier in the session, confirming that the move has lifted the asset above $2,616 — a ceiling that had rejected every rally attempt since the breakout out of the late-August range.
The significance of the level cannot be overstated. Friday's daily candle finished just five dollars below that threshold, meaning Saturday's session is the deciding moment for whether the breakout is genuine or yet another false move. For nearly four weeks, Ether had been confined between $2,393 and $2,616 after initially surging out of the August low. Multiple wicks in September had probed above the upper bound only to be pushed back down, underscoring how tightly the market had been trading in that box.
The Friday advance came in tandem with the broader crypto complex, as Bitcoin retook the $80,000 mark. However, several factors suggest ETH-specific buying pressure is also at play. Santiment attributed the recent drop in network transaction costs to the Fusaka upgrade, increased blob capacity, and a growing share of activity migrating to Layer-2 networks away from the main chain. The research firm did note, though, that reduced fees by themselves are not definitive evidence of rising fundamental demand.
The macro environment provided additional tailwind. The Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark rate on Wednesday, and the Senate voted down the CLARITY Act earlier in the week. Neither event sparked a sustained selloff, allowing the crypto market to digest the news and continue higher.
Technical Picture Points to $2,757 as the First Hurdle
Momentum indicators back the bullish case. The 50-day exponential moving average sits at $2,309, well above the 200-day EMA at $2,218, confirming a positive medium-term trend. Ether is trading roughly 13 percent above the faster moving average — a stretch that is notable but not unusual during a confirmed breakout.
The immediate resistance level to watch is $2,757, approximately 4 percent above the current price. That figure marks the point where the late-January selloff accelerated, so sellers are likely to defend it. Should a daily close clear $2,757, the chart opens up a considerably wider gap to the next cluster of resistance between $3,371 and $3,454.
Fibonacci extension levels add further reference points. The 100 percent extension lands at $3,499, roughly 32 percent above the current quote, while the 161.8 percent extension reaches $4,213 — approximately 59 percent higher. In a July analysis, the author noted that ETH had just broken free of a year-long downtrend at that point, and since the June low near $1,507 the price has climbed about 76 percent.
Friday's own analysis identified a daily close above $2,616 as the trigger that would put $2,757 in play. With the price now sitting above that level, the final confirmation rests on Saturday's close. Chart analyst Ali Martinez, as reported by Benzinga, had flagged $2,570 as the key breakout threshold, with $2,700 and potentially $3,000 as subsequent targets. Ether cleared $2,570 on Friday, aligning with that read of the market.
Institutional Forecasts and ETF Flows Back the Bullish Bias
Banks have been increasingly constructive on Ether. The coin already trades roughly 18 percent above the target that Citi trimmed in July. Standard Chartered's year-end price forecast sits about 51 percent above the current level, placing it between the two Fibonacci extensions outlined above. The bank revised that target down from $7,500 in June, according to Yahoo Finance. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, made the case at the time by pointing out that transaction counts and total value locked in the ecosystem are hovering near record highs in ETH terms.
On the flows front, spot Ether exchange-traded funds saw a return of $143.7 million in net inflows over the most recent session, snapping a three-day streak of outflows. That shift in institutional and retail ETF demand coincided with the price breaking the $2,616 barrier, reinforcing the narrative of renewed buying interest.
What Could Undo the Breakout
The bearish scenario is equally clear. A daily close back beneath $2,616 would reclassify Saturday's move as another failed breakout attempt, sending the price back into the range that has defined trading since late August. In that case, the floor at $2,393 — roughly 10 percent below the current level — would re-emerge as the first meaningful support.
Only a close below $2,393 would represent a genuine structural break, dismantling the range built over the past month and exposing the 50-day EMA near $2,309 to selling pressure.
It is worth remembering that Ether last traded near $3,400 in mid-January, before the sharp correction that followed. Saturday's intraday high of $2,668 is the best price the asset has posted since that late-January episode, meaning the path to those earlier levels is still a long way off. The next 24 to 48 hours of trading will determine whether the market treats $2,616 as a floor or a ceiling once more.